Information Sourced From: Pro Football Reference, PFN, FTN, NFL
The Miami Dolphins rank consistently towards the bottom of the league in most statistics at this point. However, I would be “dropping the ball” if I didn’t give you (my fantastic readers) a quick breakdown of at least what to expect. So, let’s break down the matchups and see, do the Dolphins have a chance, or are we severely underestimating them?
Lions Offense vs Miami’s Defense
The Lions offense should be able to take full advantage of Miami’s defense. They are currently giving up (on average) 334 yards a game. This is actually lower than the Lions, but this metric is skewed specifically for the Lions given the early season struggles the Lions had on defense, they have been much more stingy in each of their last four games. I would argue the Lions have the better and more consistently performing defense. The Dolphins currently hold the 28th ranked defense by DVOA, and are ranked lower by other measures.
Their strongest point is at the edges in pass rushing situations. Thankfully the Lions offense has arguably the best offensive tackle in the NFL in Penei Sewell on the left, and a strong right tackle in Blake Miller who thrives in pass protection. I give the Lions the win over the strongest point of Miami’s defense. Add in suspect linebackers, a thin defensive back group, and the Lions should be set up to have a heyday. Keep an eye on Jameson Williams in this game.
Lions Defense vs Miami’s Offense
Miami has the 27th ranked offense by DVOA, and has not been very productive overall. Their running game has been more effective than their passing game, however their offensive line is nothing to write home about. The Lions defensive line continues to play stingy, holding teams on average to under 100 yards rushing per game. The Lions defensive line should be well up to the task to handle the offensive line of the dolphins, and likely stuff the run as they have done very effectively all season. One concern is at linebacker, with Jack Campbell recovering (we’re praying for you Jack!) a hole exists at the second level of the defense. Look for Derrick Barnes and Malcolm Rodriguez to fill in, and play a heavy snap count.
Losing DJ Reed this week to a hip injury (see injury report below) hurts as Reed has been playing like a number one cornerback as of late. However, the return of Rakestraw this week should help, and McCreary hasn’t been bad, he just hasn’t been great. Add in Kalil Dorsey who keeps making plays on limited snaps, and Brian Branch looking as though he will play, and I think the Lions defensive backs will be fine.
I caution, as I did last week, that Malik Willis is an athletic threat with his legs. However, the Lions chose to situationally deploy a spy last week in Erick O’Neil. O’Neil is a UDFA rush defensive end who makes his game on his smaller size and speed relative to offensive linemen. He makes perfect sense to play a spy role, and I would expect they will deploy O’Neil in similar fashion. Forcing Willis to go to his arm should be a good thing for the Lions, given they have no true number one receiving threat.
Special Teams
Miami’s special teams rank 31st in the NFL. Not a ton to say here, they don’t do a ton well. They are the best at kick returns based on a bit of reading, however best in this situation does not equate to good. They convert on field goals 75% percent of the time versus the Lions 92% of the time. The Lions have the upper hand here. Keep an eye on Lions kick and punt returner Deandre Carter… he could have a game ahead of him.
Injury Report
This is the Lions first big injury report this week. Sione Vaki showing up with an Ankle on Friday is concerning, thus I would watch to see if he will suit up. I expect St. Brown and Saylors to go. Reed being out hurts, but as I detailed above I think we should be ok. Juice Scruggs slides into Cade Mays spot without a dropoff, so that should be fine. Kerby continues to work back and by all accounts is looking quite good. Jack Campbell continues his positive steps in recovery.
That’s all for this edition of By the Stats with bonus injury report! If you’re in Michigan try to get outside and look at the beautiful changing leaves if they haven’t fallen off the trees yet! As always: Let’s go Lions!