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The Lions made the long trek to Munich Germany this week. This game brings back tons of emotional ties, from the Patriots ties of the previous Lions regime, to Amon-Ra St. Brown’s German heritage, it should prove to provide plenty of energy for what should be a good game. Let’s dig in on the stats this week, which proved to be much closer than I expected.
Overall Ranking vs DVOA Ranking
So, this is an interesting week, where the DVOA ranking disagrees with the power rankings. The simple explanation of this is that power rankings are completely subjective, and ranked by writers for the NFL based on their years of experience. I am sure there are plenty of stats that go into this, but it also includes the eye test. DVOA simply averages out throughout the season thus far on their value over average plays of that type. DVOA is completely statistical. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle of these two values.
Lions Offense (10th) vs Patriots Defense (15th)
The Patriots defense sits at the middle of the pack by DVOA, and given the playmakers on the outside of the field, that doesn’t surprise me. However the reason they are not higher, and that their cornerbacks have had trouble as of late, is their defensive pressure rate. Per Yahoo Sports the Patriots are 24th in the NFL in pressure rate, getting QB pressure on the QB only 16.7% of the time. Lions fans will know all too well how badly corners can get torched when you can’t get pressure.
I would give the edge to the Lions here if they can improve in one key area over last week, their offensive line play. While the Patriots have not been able to generate pressure at a consistently high rate, the Lions offensive line was taken advantage of by Miami’s defensive line. However, with the return of Christian Mahogany to the starting lineup and a hopeful bounceback game for Blake Miller, the Lions should be in good shape to put up some points.
Lions Defense (25th) vs Patriots Offense (9th)
The Lions average defensive DVOA continues to suffer from their abysmal start to the season. Everyone with eyes can see that they have improved considerably in the last month. However, they cannot afford to be caught off guard by this Patriots offense. A lot will come down to the status of the likes of Rhamondre Stevenson and AJ Brown, who are both questionable, but have been able to get in a single limited practice to date. Assuming both are able to play, the Patriots likely have the edge in this matchup.
Once again, I think this comes down to pressure on the QB. If Drake Maye can be made to hurry his decisions, he tends to make bad ones. He has 11 interceptions on the year. While the Lions defense has not been big on picking off the ball this year, Brian Branch being back has helped that, and last week Chuck Clark showed what the mind of a veteran safety can do. The Lions defense can handle this Patriots defense, but the question is, which defense will show up? The first four games’ defense, or the last four?
Lions Special Teams (5th) vs Patriots Special Teams (20th).
Given how close these teams look on paper, this could truly be the difference maker. The Lions special teams have played pretty well on the year, earning them a high spot. DeAndre Carter’s speed and agility make him a threat to breakaway at any time. I expect the Lions will win the field position battle for special teams between returns and kicks, and that truly could be what puts them over the top. In Dave Fipp we trust.
That’s all for this edition of By the Stats, as always Let’s Go Lions!!
I don't like these travel games, you never know who handles that kind of time shift/jet lag well.