Gibbs as Bellcow: The Lions’ Backfield Evolution
Information sourced from: Lineups.com Snap Counts, Pro Football Reference, Dan Campbell Presser - 6.4.26
In Dan Campbell’s most recent press conference he stated outright that Jahmyr Gibbs would be the Lions bellcow back moving forward. With the addition of Pacheco, and players like Vaki and
Saylers on the roster, what does this mean for them? Let’s dive in and see what we are likely to see in the upcoming year from the Lions running back room.
The first thing that came to my mind was simply breaking down how many snaps are given to a bellcow back from a percentage perspective. The one bellcow back that really came to mind was Saquon Barkley from the 2024/2025 season with the Eagles (shoutout to my aunt who is a big Eagles fan), where he rushed for 2005 rushing yards. If you break down the numbers, Barkley rushed for 345 snaps, and the Eagles rushed for 478 snaps. Meaning Saquon rushed for 72% of snaps. We have our baseline.
For Lions data, I am going to go back to the 2024/2025 season as well. This is given that the Lions struggled to rush last year with their offensive line problems, and rushed less than they had previously from a snap perspective. In 2024/2025 the Lions rushed for 534 snaps, a 72% share of those snaps is 384, divided over 17 games is 23 snaps (rounded up). The remaining snaps are 150, divided over 17 games gives us 9 snaps remaining (rounded up). Because of rounding and such, let’s take Gibbs share down to 22, and bring the remaining snaps to 10.
Given all the data, I think this a pretty clear picture has been painted. There is going to be a share of snaps for RB2 (outside of Gibbs), and probably next to none for RB3. The Craig Reynolds days are done in Detroit, and honestly, I think that is alright. I am excited to see what happens when they shift the rushing methodology.
Furthermore I think this will be a very good thing for RB2 Pacheco (whom I really like). Pacheco has struggled under a heavier running load as of late, with both production and injury. He seems (in my opinion) to come out fresh early, and then fall off. The hope would be, limiting his snaps will play a dual purpose role. For his 10 snaps he should be fresh and ready to go, that’s number one. Secondly, if Gibbs were to need a game or two, Pacheco should be ready to go and fresh enough to fill in on a more consistent basis (with a much larger split for Vaki or Saylers). It makes sense for all parties involved, and aligns with the contract Pacheco was willing to take.
Finally, I do think there could be a snap or two a game either added or taken from Pacheco or Gibbs (or added outright) and given to Vaki or Saylers. Just enough to keep them ready in case they are needed unexpectedly on gameday. We don’t want them getting too rusty.
At the end of the day this is all speculation, none of us will know what is going to happen until the Lions hit the field. However, things are likely to look much different this year. Or who knows? Perhaps this is all a smoke screen. I just think Dan’s comments align far too well with the reality of the roster to be a smoke screen. Only time will tell.