The Lions Schedule Revisited: Updated W-L Forecast
Does the loss of Arnold and the questions at Safety change things? Do other teams coming together flip their fortunes? Let's dive back in to the Lions schedule!
Information sourced from: Detroit Lions Official X Account, ESPN
Back in May, at the time of the Lions schedule drop, I predicted how I thought the Lions would do this year. However, since this post, a lot has changed. OTAs have come and gone, some players’ stock has risen and others have dropped. Some players have departed the Lions. Let’s revisit and review what I had to say before, and provide some adjustments!
Week One - New Orleans Saints - Home
What I said in May: The Saints have struggled in years past. While there are some analysts that seem to think they have turned a corner, and that they have their franchise quarterback in the building. I am not one of them. I believe the Lions are without question the more complete team, and no combination of Tyler Shough, Zach Wilson, and Spencer Rattler is going to convince me otherwise. The Lions also have a great home advantage. Give me the Lions in this one.
What I think now: I am starting to come around to the idea that the Saints might actually have made some positive changes and may be a competitive team this year. However, I still think the Lions are in a better spot and thus still believe the Lions will win. This may prove to be a more competitive match than previously thought though.
Week Two - Buffalo Bills - Away
What I said in May: The Buffalo Bills are a tough matchup no matter which way you hash it. Yes, they do have a new head coach. However this is not the only change at play here. The Buffalo Bills will also be breaking in their new stadium in primetime. Add in the Lions short turnaround for a Thursday night game. I simply think that the cards are stacked against the Lions in this one: Give me the Buffalo Bills.
What I think now: Not much to change here. The Bills are still a tough matchup. I think this almost comes down to a coin flip. But the turnaround is still tough. I have to stick with a Lions loss here.
Week Three - New York Jets - Home
What I said in May: The prodigal son Aaron Glenn returns to Detroit against a well rested Lions team. I will say that I believe the Jets have a good possibility of taking a step in the right direction this year. Perhaps they will start their launch into being a competitive team. However, there is not enough there to overcome the Lions talent and homefield advantages. Give me the Lions.
What I think now: The Jets seem to be stuck in purgatory, and nothing they have done in this offseason is going to push them out of this rut. I’ll stick with the Lions.
Week Four - Carolina Panthers - Away
What I said in May: I think most people would agree with me when I say that the Panthers are ascending. With young players like Bryce Young, Tetaiora McMillian, and Ikem Ekwomu they likely have a bit more to grow yet. However the Lions are also young, and have more proven talent than the Panthers do. Give me the Lions.
What I think now: The more I read about the Panthers, the more it sounds like their defense actually has improved considerably. We are at week four and the Lions sit at 2-1, but they have to go into an opposing field to get the win. I think this is one of those tight games that comes down to the wire, and the Panthers show they are building something. I am going to switch my answer to the Panthers, as I am beginning to think some people may be sleeping too much on them.
Week Five - Arizona Cardinals - Away
What I said in May: The Cardinals lost their previous franchise quarterback to free agency (for better, or for worse). While they have plenty of capable talent on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball, you have to score points in order to win. I don’t see the combination of Jacoby Brisset, Gardner Minshew, and Carson Beck providing those points. I truly think that the Lions new OC Drew Petzing was a lot of the reason Jacoby did as well as he did last year with the Cardinals. Give me the Lions.
What I think now: I’m sorry, the Cardinals are in a bad place. I don’t think they are going to do much of anything this year. Jacoby Brisset isn’t it, i’ll stick with the Lions.
Week Six - Bye Week
What I said in May: The Lions get an early bye. I never like early bye weeks. I always find myself pining for an extra week for players to get healthy down the stretch. Perhaps the changes the Lions have made will help them stay healthy down the stretch, but I still would prefer this come later.
What I think now: I’ve actually listened to a number of folks preach statistics that seem to suggest bye week placement doesn’t matter. No win or loss here, but perhaps the early bye isn’t a bad thing. Hopefully the Lions can come back ready to play, because the next two games are quite important.
Week Seven - Green Bay Packers - Home
What I said in May: Am I the only one who seems to think that the Packers lost more than they gained this offseason thus far? I am just not seeing this plan work out for them. However, I also know that the Lions have historically played poorly coming out of the bye under Dan Campbell. I unfortunately think the rust overcomes the Lions here, and they are handed their first home loss of the season. Give me the (*gulp*) Packers.
What I think now: Well the Josh Jacobs saga is an unknown, and he very much may be suspended at this point. There are questions on the Packers offensive line. Jordan Love is a good QB, so there’s that, but they also won’t have any of Micah Parsons at this point. I am going to flip this, give me the Lions with an important division win.
Week Eight - Minnesota Vikings - Home
What I said in May: I also don’t see what the Vikings are doing. The loss of Jonathan Greenard is a big one. I am not a Kyler Murray fan. Who knows what is going to happen with JJ McCarthy. Aaron Jones is at the ripe old running-back age of thirty one. TJ Hockenson has not looked the same as of late. Want me to go on? The Lions roar back into form at home. Give me the Lions.
What I think now: The Vikings have given me no reason to change my pick. I fully expect the Vikings to be the worst team in the NFC North, I’ll stick with the Lions with another important division win.
Week Nine - Miami Dolphins - Away
What I said in May: The Dolphins are in full blown rebuild mode. Tua is gone, and I don’t see Malik Willis as more than a high end backup quarterback. Now don’t get me wrong, they got some nice pieces in the draft. I am higher on Max Llewelyn than most, and think he may end up starting on one side or the other by the end of the season. However, I don’t see them being very good this year. Give me the Lions.
What I think now: Much like the Vikings, the Dolphins simply haven’t given me any reason to change my answer. No big name player acquisitions or trades. They have extended Achane, and added some journeyman players, but that doesn’t make much of a difference. Give me the Lions still.
Week Ten - New England Patriots - Home (Munich, Germany)
What I thought in May: The Patriots have been ascending as of late. I know, I know, the news that is floating around about Vrabel hasn’t been great. However, with the type of culture the Patriots have historically had, I don’t think that moves the needle. This is a very hard game. The Lions are on the road even though this is a “home” game. This is a hard one. I think there will be a good fan turnout too given St. Brown’s connection to Germany. This is a coin flip, so I flipped a coin and it came up in favor of the Lions. Give me the Lions.
What I think now: The Patriots have been embroiled in controversy this offseason. They have player talent, but is the culture strong enough right now to handle these issues? My thought is no, its not yet. This further cements my thought that the Lions win this one. I also still think the crowd is gonna be nuts for St. Brown.
Week Eleven - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Home
What I thought in May: The Buccaneers and Lions have always fought each other hard as of late. Last year when the LIons played the Buccaneers it came down to how the “Legion of Whom” performed, and they were up for the task. Kelvin Sheppard has an arguably better group of defensive backs this year, though the injuries to Branch and Kerby leave question marks. I think this game will come down to the defensive back play of the Lions. To me this is another coin flip, and this time the Lions come out on the wrong side of the coin. Give me the Buccaneers.
What I think now: I’m seriously concerned about Kerby Joseph, and if he will make it this far in the season. I am concerned that Branch is not going to be himself. The Lions have built good depth, but there are problems. Add in the loss of Terrion and how Baker plays… I am going to unfortunately flip this to a Lions loss, but it should be a hard fought game.
Week Twelve - Chicago Bears - Home (Thanksgiving)
What I thought in May: The Lions have not performed well on Thanksgiving as of late. Last year the Lions had the Bears number. The season is getting close to the home stretch here and the Lions are going to want to show they can not only perform on Thanksgiving, but that Drew Petzing can call an offense that will rival Ben Johnson’s. The Lions deliver for the Home crowd and eat turkey legs on national television. Give me the Lions.
What I think now: I am more and more convinced that despite Ben Johnson’s formidable offense that Caleb Williams is going to fall back to earth, and that he will not have nearly as many 50/50 plays go his way. The amount of luck the Bears had is not tenable in the long term. I’ll stick with the Lions.
Week Thirteen - Atlanta Falcons - Away
What I thought in May: The Falcons are building something, and I think they might be on their way back to being a consistently good team. We may know this for sure by week thirteen. However, I still think that the Lions are the more complete team at this point. Give me the Lions.
What I think now: Not much has changed here. Dakre London is under contract through 2030 now. I think they very well could be competitive, but I am still gonna say give me the Lions.
Week Fourteen - Tennessee Titans - Home
What I thought in May: I just don’t see what the Titans are building. When you look at some teams that have been on the lower end of the spectrum as of late, you can see what they are trying to do clearly. I don’t see it here, I really don’t. I think this is an easy win. Give me the Lions.
What I think now: The same. Easy win. Give me the Lions.
Week Fifteen - Minnesota Vikings - Away
What I thought in May: While I do think that the Vikings are not going to be great this year (in fact I think they will be firmly at the bottom of the division), I think that home field advantage will play a big part in this game. The gap between contending in this league and not contending in this league is a slim one. I think the Vikings and Lions split. Give me the Vikings.
What I think now: The Vikings will always be competitive, but as I alluded to earlier, I think they are going to be the last place team in the NFC North. I just get the feeling that they will fight, but they will lose. Also, the Lions are out for blood with the Vikings after Christmas last year. Give me the Lions.
Week Sixteen - New York Giants - Home
What I thought in May: The Giants have a new head coach, and time will only tell if this marriage between John Harbaugh and the Giants is a good thing. We are getting down the stretch and the Lions are going to feel the pressure to finish strong. The Giants will be playing in a new system, and it’s hard to remember a time where Harbaugh wasn’t a Raven. This one is hard to say, but give me the Lions due to home field advantage.
What I think now: I’m starting to wonder if the Giants will actually figure it out. Cam Skattebo needs to be careful with his health, but if he is healthy in this game this could end up being a bit of a shoot out. Being able to run will open up the field for Nabers. Slayton still can do things, and Likely is here too. I’m going to flip this one in a hard fought battle. Give me the Giants.
Week Seventeen - Chicago Bears - Away
What I thought in May: The Bears are a good team. Ben Johnson has built something good in Chicago. What I thought at first was Ben just trying to mimic Dan has turned into something that the league respects. Ben Johnson is not mimicking, I think his players would have sniffed that out by now. Caleb Wiliams also has a ton of tools. While the Lions have had the Bears number as I stated above, I’m giving this one once again to home field advantage. Give me the Bears.
What I think now: See my comments above regarding the luck of the Bears. The Bears fall back to earth. Give me the Lions.
Week Eighteen - Green Bay Packers - Away
What I thought in May: The bitter cold of Lambeau is upon us once again in week eighteen. However, coming off a stinging loss against the Bears, the Lions are motivated to end the season on a positive note and roar into the playoffs. The Lions win in convincing fashion, and bring their record to twelve and five. I believe this will not only be good enough to make the playoffs, but to clinch the NFC North. Raise the banner high my friends. I predict the Lions are NFC North champions, and are hot heading into the post season.
The more I think about it, the more I think this schedule is deceivingly dangerous. Do I think this could be the reality of what happens? Absolutely. However the amount of “coin flips” I saw makes this easy to tilt either way. I have confidence in the changes the Lions have made though, and I stand by my prediction that they will be NFC North champions.
What I think now: Raise that banner, a Lions victory and a sweep of the NFC north opponents.